Thursday, 28 November 2013

Tactical Retreat, Strategic Victory

There have been a number of articles discussing the recent nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1*, with conclusions ranging from one extreme to the other – that Iran capitulated through to Iran got the deal of the century. My belief is that the deal was good for both sides, and I will lay out why I think this below.

Tuesday, 27 August 2013

Syria Follow-up – The “State Massacre” Plan

Back in November 2012 in analysing the similarities between Western actions on Libya and Syria I wrote:
If the Libyan steps are followed, the next step should be UN recognition of NCSROF as legitimate. This is less likely to occur while Russia and China are still opposed to military action against Syria, and may be the main problem Western countries are facing in trying to intervene (they are currently still clinging to some veneer of legitimacy in adhering to international laws). To break this impasse keep watch for another state “massacre,” either real or created, with the goal to put political pressure on Russia and China to drop Assad.

Thursday, 17 January 2013

Mali and Terrorists at the Gates

Background: Mali

Reports of the recent events in Mali describe a country being overrun by Islamists. The recent conflict began a year ago in January 2012, when the people living in the north of Mali, the Tuaregs, succeeded in defeating the Malian army in a number of battles for independence. The victories culminated in the Tuaregs, led by the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), declaring the independence of Azawad, their land in the north of Mali. Around the same time, the Malian military ejected President Touré in a coup in response to his mismanagement of the conflict.